![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() And the blue pluses here show historical values of carbon emissions. This red curve is the projected future carbon emissions, given the values that we've chosen for the various terms. Now, let's use the default values that are set in the calculator and do the calculation.Īnd here we go. So we can calculate CO2 emissions trajectories as a product of these various terms. As we switch over to less carbon intensive sources of energy, we will decrease over time, the amount of carbon that we emit for each unit of power, say, a terawatt of power. As we develop more efficient means of obtaining energy, we will decrease the cost in dollars for a given watt of power.Īnd finally, carbon efficiency. Energy intensity, in principle, should decrease over time. Projections of relative- that is per capita economic growth, that as the world becomes more industrialized as developing nations develop more industrial economies, that we're likely to see an increase in relative economic expansion per person. So the idea is that population, we can use demographic projections that, for example, have global population leveling out somewhere around 11 billion later this century. And this identity, as we now know, uses the fact that CO2 emissions are going to be a product of various terms that contribute to emissions growth, population, GDP per person, relative economic growth, energy intensity, the amount of energy we can get for a dollar- a given amount of money, and carbon efficiency, how efficient we are at producing energy in a non-carbon intensive manner. PRESENTER: OK, we're now going to play around with this online calculator that uses that Kaya identity to project future CO2 emissions. The initial values are: Population Plateau=11 billion, GDP/Person=1.6, Watts/$=-1.0, and Carbon Released/Watt=-0.3. You will also have to enter the initial values referred to in the video. The format of the new tool is slightly different from the videos below, all of the functionality is still available, but you will have to use the pull down menus to select which chart you want to view and you are limited to viewing just two graphs at a time. Note: The online calculator ( Kaya Identity Scenario Prognosticator) has been updated. After you watch the demonstration, use the link provided above to play around with the calculator yourself. Below a brief demonstration of how the tool can be used. There is a convenient online calculator ( Kaya Identity Scenario Prognosticator), provided courtesy of David Archer of the University of Chicago (and a RealClimate blogger ). As we develop and increasingly switch over to renewable energy sources and non-fossil fuel based energy alternatives and improve the carbon efficiency of existing fossil fuel sources (e.g., by finding a way to extract and sequester CO 2), we can expect a decline in this quantity as well, i.e., less carbon emitted per unit of energy production.įortunately, we do not have to start from scratch. Last, but certainly not least, is the carbon efficiency. As we develop new energy technologies or improve the efficiency of existing energy technology, we expect that it will take less energy to increase our GDP by and additional dollar, i.e., we should see a decline in energy intensity. The energy intensity term is where technology comes in. Moreover, economic production measured by GDP per capita plays an important role, as a bigger economy means greater use of energy. Obviously, population is important as, in the absence of anything else, more people means more energy use. Where F is global CO 2 emissions from human sources P is global population G is world GDP E is global energy consumptionīy projecting the future changes in population (P), economic production ( G / P ), energy intensity ( E / G ), and carbon efficiency ( F / E ), it is possible to make an informed projection of future carbon emissions ( F ). Mathematically, the Kaya identity is expressed in the form:į = P * ( G / P ) * ( E / G ) * ( F / E ) If the other quantities are expressed as a percentage change per year, then the carbon emissions, too, are expressed as a percentage change per year, which, in turn, defines a future trajectory of carbon emissions and CO 2 concentrations. Multiply these out, and you get gigatons of carbon emitted. Technically, the identity is just a definition, relating the quantity of annual carbon emissions to a factor of terms that reflect (1) population, (2) relative (i.e., per capita) economic production, measured by annual GDP in dollars/person, (3) energy intensity, measured in terawatts of energy consumed per dollar added to GDP, and (4) carbon efficiency, measured in gigatons of carbon emitted per terawatt of energy used. To do so, we will take advantage of something known as the Kaya Identity. We can actually play around with greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ourselves. ![]()
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